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Living Dead Zone
Online Shoppers:
Proceed With Caution


 

 

ANYWHERE, USA, July 11, 2000 -- Think twice before you go online and order that dog delouser, hair restoration kit or box of assorted nuts. The next several months would be a good time to reacquaint yourself with the local malls and big box retailers.

The Web-based business-to-consumer sector these days is a "walking dead" zone. Glitzy start-ups that a year or two ago were headed for the stars today are headed for the trash heap. One after another, the tottering e-stores are running out of time and money.

When the last employee shreds his stock options and turns out the lights, there'll be a lot of orders left unfilled -- and many consumers will have paid for items they will never receive.

"They're more like the dying dead than the living dead," said John Hummer, cofounder and managing partner of the venture capital firm Hummer Winblad Venture Partners in a Red Herring interview. "The employees will see the value of their equity go to zero, the human capital will leave, and by June, many of the (business-to-consumer sites) will cease to exist."

Sound dire? It is. The fevered rush of the latter days of the 20th Century to stake out retail turf on the Web was similar to the gold rush of the latter days of the previous century, with one important difference -- there really was gold in them thar hills back in 1880.

Fool's Gold comes closer to describing what many have mined the last few years.

The notion that the Great American Shopper would forsake the mall for the Web is turning out to have been an illusion, and the so-called Smart Money is running as fast as it can -- away from business-to-consumer e-commerce.

Last year, nearly $4.5 billion was poured into e-commerce by venture capitalists. Very few have much to show for their trouble, as once-lavishly-funded ventures live out their last days and stock prices plummet. Red Herring notes that Drugstore.com, eToys and Webvan have all seen their stock hit new lows the in recent weeks.

Some of the companies on the critical list have many loyal customers and reputations for providing great customer service. They lack only one thing: profits. A cool idea looks a little less appealing after several straight years of losses. Losing a little on each sale but making it up on volume is an old joke, but apparently not old enough.

Wall Street is not laughing. Public companies lately being dissed include Amazon, CDNow, VitaminShoppe, Peapod, among many others.

Not to rely on old cliches about buzzards circling but ... well, the big law firms are beefing up their bankruptcy practices, expecting a rush of business anyday now.

Consumers are often surprised to learn that when a company slides into bankruptcy, their chance of recovering anything of value is about as good as their chance of finding gold in their backyard. Cash-and-carry is a good rule to follow til the dust settles.


Consumer News

August 29 2008

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