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More Homeowners Falling Behind On Mortgage Payments

December 14, 2006

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The delinquency rate for residential mortgage stood at 4.67 percent of all loans outstanding in the third quarter of 2006 on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's up 28 basis points from the second quarter, and up 23 basis points from one year ago, according to Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey.

The survey noted that consumers holding subprime and FHA mortgages registered the largest increase in delinquency.

Subprime loans carry higher interest rates and most often are sold to consumers with modest income and little or no credit.

"The housing market continued to normalize in the third quarter of 2006. Although labor markets remain strong, the pace of job growth has slowed, as has the home price appreciation rate which has decreased in response to higher interest rates and rising inventories of unsold homes," said Doug Duncan, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development. "Some states experienced home price declines in the third quarter, and a few have experienced declines over the past six months."

Duncan said it was "not surprising" that subprime and ARM loans were most often delinquent.

"Subprime borrowers are more likely to be susceptible to the cumulative increases in rates we've experienced, and the slowing of home price appreciation that has resulted. It is important to remember that delinquency and foreclosure rates have been quite low the last two years," he said.

All adjustable rate (ARM) as well as fixed rate (FRM) loans had higher delinquency rates compared to the second quarter of 2006. The delinquency rate for prime ARMs increased 36 basis points (from 2.70 percent to 3.06) and the rate for prime FRM loans increased ten basis points (from 2.00 to 2.10 percent). The delinquency rate for the subprime FRM loans increased 35 basis points (9.23 percent to 9.56 percent), whereas the rate for subprime ARMs increased 98 basis points (12.24 percent to 13.22 percent).

The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 1.05 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter, an increase of six basis points from the second quarter of 2006, while the SA rate of loans entering the foreclosure process was 0.46 percent, three basis points higher than the previous quarter.

Compared with the third quarter of 2005, the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was up eight basis points while the percentage of loans entering the foreclosure process was up five basis points. This quarter's NDS results cover over 42.6 million loans (32.6 million prime loans, 5.8 million subprime loans and 4.2 million government loans).

The delinquency rate increased during the third quarter for all loan types. The delinquency rate increased 15 basis points for prime loans (from 2.29 percent to 2.44 percent), increased 86 basis points for subprime loans (from 11.70 percent to 12.56 percent), increased 35 basis points for FHA loans (from 12.45 percent to 12.80 percent), and increased 23 basis points for VA loans (from 6.35 percent to 6.58 percent).

During the third quarter of 2006, the foreclosure inventory rate increased across the range of loans. The foreclosure inventory rate increased three basis points for prime loans (from 0.41 percent to 0.44 percent), 30 basis points for subprime loans (from 3.56 percent to 3.86 percent), eight basis points for FHA loans (from 2.20 percent to 2.28 percent), and two basis points for VA loans (from 1.10 percent to 1.12 percent).

By loan type, the percent of new foreclosures increased one basis point for prime loans (from 0.18 percent to 0.19 percent), three basis points for subprime loans (from 1.79 percent to 1.82 percent), four basis points for FHA loans (from 0.75 percent to 0.79 percent) and decreased three basis points for VA loans (from 0.35 to 0.32 percent). In the third quarter of 2006, the percent of loans that were seriously delinquent, which is defined as the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) percentage of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent or in the process of foreclosure, was 2 percent, 11 basis points higher than for the second quarter of 2006.

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